Just to summarize about SARS-CoV-2

I have been following the news about SARS-CoV-2 for many days now and applying Systems thinking I guess I understood many important facts and necessary behaviors that are unclear to many peoples, journalists and possibly health care systems too included, and must be taken in care to improve our chances of surviving in the next months with the least of possible damages and disruption!
There are some different axes we have to consider when individuals, countries or simply a groups of persons, being them friends, fellows, organizations or even cities, have to confront with a pandemic like the one is coming:

1. the axis of possible contamination history of every individual involved
2. the axis of disease spreading prevention
3. the axis of individual fears and needs
4. the axis of economy
5. the axis of personal freedom
6. the axis of laws and rules enforcement
7. the axis of resources to manage that will go under stress as the time passes on

Many of those axes have different interests and maybe sometimes opposite!
We can start with the first one

Contamination history

It is important mostly in those first phases to know how the virus spreads around. That is not a secondary question even if the outbreak will go beyond the prevention phase, because the narration of the spreading paths gives to the peoples a clear idea on the ways virus circulates and moves from a group of persons to the next one. Not only the fact that a cough or a sneeze can spread around droplets of contaminated saliva is important but it's really important to monitor else's behaviors around us and mostly our own ones!

Spreading Prevention

Another axis which is important is the spreading prevention on near/close peoples, random or afar groups contamination.
Amongst the possible types of groups we can have few of:

• people we live with, we work with
• people we meet on usual places (markets, busses, pubs) 
• people we meet in unusual places or places that are frequented by pople who come from afar.

Many peoples are gearing up to avoid to be contaminated maybe wearing surgical masks or so.
This is a paradoxical behavior that offers a practical effect: people use them to avoid the risk of being contaminates by others, but it is more important and effective not exactly to prevent contamination in the direction of the bearer, but to avoid possible contamination of others if we are unknowingly contaminated. So we must become aware that a civic sense of responsibility toward others can generally affect (in positive way) the life of our environment.

(not finished)

A strange guide line to create new vaccins against the new Corona-virus Flue

I was discussing yesterday with a friend, a biologist, about the real risk of coronavirus pandemic flue, when i realized that the arising problem of not only the healing but of prevention and vaccination had to be fitted in a larger panorama.

1. Attenuation of viruses.
2. Was this pandemic flue so strong in Wuhan food markets habitues too?
3. Why this very dangerous flue is not producing so many deaths as we could expect by it in China?

Confronting with all those  dilemmas at a certain point I realized that almost for sure in the living food market in Wuhan where this coronavirus seems to have started its career, there were its predecessors too or better the sibling strains of its brothers and cousins that for at least a 80% should share parts of its genome and capsid; consequently a large part of the people working in those markets have got immunity for the same reason cowpox was used to eradicate the smallpox: one is known to be related to the other one!

So a good idea to proceed is to find brothers and cousins of that virus to use as vaccination, flatily, at least to easily and fast increase the chance to put under a sort of provisional high rate of protection those (or the world at a whole) that are near the risk of infection, having a natural vax.

So:

• track the history of the virus
• Track back the strains of brothers and cousins
• Vaccinate with it as many people as it's possible using those cousins
• Make a statistical research afterward to check for the results.

It is maybe out of the standard of the traditional procedures vax companies do, but if the danger is really so high maybe a temporary solution offered by a common sense can increase meanwhile the chance of reducing the risk of a general pandemic by this corona-virus.

© Luca COLELUPPI - Verona, Italy